In sharp rebuke to contradictory statements made by heads of the Philippine government’s foreign and defense departments, President Rodrigo Duterte continues to maintain his diplomatic pivot to Beijing in statements made during his State of the Nation Address last July.
“We have to go to war. And I cannot afford it. Maybe some other president can but I cannot. Inutil ako diyan. Talagang inutil ako diyan. Walang magawa [I’m useless when it comes to that. Really, I’m useless to that. I can’t do anything]. I cannot,” the President said.
He further said that unless that nation is prepared to go to war, he suggests the territorial dispute should be considered as a diplomatic endeavor.
In fact, the President briefly went off-script and revealed that he made a plea to Chinese President Xi Jinping for the Manil to have preferential access to Chinese-made vaccines.
The President also doused hopes for the return of warm relations between Manila and Washington, as he expressly said that he would not allow foreign bases in Subic Bay, as he fears the destruction of cities, similar to the destruction of Manila in World War II.
By disallowing US bases in the country, it will be difficult for US forces to advance their strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. Without policy clarity, this should be understood as including agreed locations or forward operating bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, which are military bases for US troops but not considered foreign military bases.
These presidential pronouncements are in stark contrast to the very combative posturing made by Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana in relation to Manila’s claim over the West Philippine Sea.
Locsin called as “non-negotiable” the historic ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague on July 12, 2016, which invalidated China’s expansive claims over the entire South China Sea. The defense also doubled down on this by urging China to comply with the PCA ruling and abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS).
In response, the Chinese Embassy in Manila maintained that the PCA ruling was illegal and invalid.
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No less than Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that Beijing appreciates the ban and looks forward to properly resolve maritime disputes with the Philippines through friendly consultations.
All of these developments put both defense and foreign affairs chiefs in a very awkward policy position.
The two heads of agencies have raised diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Manila without clarifying with the President his real thoughts on the entirety of the relationship between the two countries.
In fact, there should be a determination on whether or not the pointed policy statements relating to the PCA ruling had clearance from the President himself.
Because if there was actual presidential clearance, the President’s pronouncements and subsequent developments relating to the bilateral relations would not have been made.
The impact of this sharp rebuke redounds towards PH-US relations as well, given that a rapprochement between Beijing and Washington has not yet been reached over trade disputes, and now evolving towards diplomatic disputes.
The President is correct that it is not in our national interest for foreign military bases to be established in the country. Nonetheless, the public should be wary on whether US-allied defense or diplomatic officials will continue pandering to Washington’s interests in the country and the region.
This includes being on high alert on whether diplomatese or legalese will be used to justify continuing plans for US forward operating bases in the Philippines.